Experts predict when quantum computers will break Bitcoin’s encryption

# Title: The Impending Threat of Quantum Computers on Bitcoin’s Encryption

## Introduction:
Recent advancements in quantum computing have sparked concerns about the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Experts are debating the timeline for quantum technology to potentially compromise Bitcoin’s encryption methods, such as elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256 hashing. In this article, we delve into expert opinions regarding when quantum computers could threaten the security of Bitcoin.

## Expert Insights on the Future of Bitcoin’s Encryption

### Craig Gidney’s Perspective
In May 2025, Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney raised concerns about the accelerated timeline for quantum computing to break encryption. His research indicated that breaking RSA encryption could require significantly fewer quantum resources than initially estimated. Despite not directly mentioning Bitcoin, the implications of Gidney’s findings on ECC could pose a threat to the security of crypto wallets and transactions. He suggested a risk window between 2030 and 2035, subject to advancements in error correction.

### Adam Black’s Stance
Contrary to Gidney, Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, expressed a more conservative view in April 2025. He believed that quantum computers might not pose a significant risk to Bitcoin for at least two decades. However, he acknowledged the potential need for migrating coins to quantum-resistant addresses in the future, possibly unveiling the identity of Bitcoin’s elusive founder, Satoshi Nakamoto.

### David Carvalho’s Timely Warning
In a June 2025 publication on Cointelegraph, David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol, issued a pressing alert regarding the imminent threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin. Carvalho emphasized the urgency for Bitcoin to upgrade its cryptography to prevent potential breaches. With the emergence of powerful quantum systems like Microsoft’s Majorana chip, the security of approximately 30% of Bitcoin stored in vulnerable addresses could be compromised, leading to irreversible consequences for holders and the ecosystem.

### Chamath Palihapitiya’s Caution
In December 2024, billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya highlighted the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption to quantum advancements. He warned that within the next two to five years, the pace of quantum progress could potentially render Bitcoin’s encryption susceptible to breaches. Palihapitiya’s concerns followed Google’s unveiling of the 105-qubit Willow chip, signaling a significant milestone in quantum computing capabilities.

## Conclusion
As the development of quantum computing accelerates, the debate surrounding Bitcoin’s encryption vulnerability intensifies. While experts offer varying timelines for when quantum technology could compromise Bitcoin’s security, the consensus is clear: urgent actions are required to enhance the resilience of Bitcoin’s cryptography against the looming threat of quantum computers. Stakeholders in the cryptocurrency ecosystem must stay vigilant and proactive in preparing for the potential impact of quantum advancements on Bitcoin’s encryption methods.