Archer innovation is down 47.68% YTD and down 81% from ATH. However, flying air taxis and autonomous air-robotaxis are closer than ever. In August AA delivered its first aircraft, “Midnight” to the U.S. Air Force for trials and tests.
They have completed 400 test flights in 2024 with 402 test flights already completed.
The successful test flight included an inflight transition, where the Midnight performed a vertical take-off before accelerating forward with its wing-borne capabilities and landing vertically again.
A transition flight occurs when the aircraft takes off vertically like a helicopter, accelerates forward, transitions from thrust-borne to wing-borne flight like an airplane with tilt propellers forward before decelerating and landing vertically.
So what is so great about an eVTOL (Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) vehicles?
- Reduced air and noise pollution: Zero direct emissions
- Sustainable transportation
- Taxis service: Currently sits 4 and a pilot with future models allowing for more passengers
- Emergency medical services such as medical evacuation and emergency medical deliveries
Highlights of AA eVTOL 1st generation aircraft:
- Vertical take off/landing and forward wing wing-borne flight
- Can reach speeds of 150 mph and have a range of 100 miles
- 100x quieter than a helicopter
- Costs 1/3 of the cost to manufacture and operate than a traditional helicopter
- Carries a 1000 pound payload
- Will manufacture 10 aircraft in 2025 and 650 in 2028
- Air Mobility network in Los Angeles set to operate in 2026 for an UBER like flight ride booking service
- United Airlines and Stellantis are collaborating partners injecting $400 million into its operational capabilities.
- Contracts and collaborations with NASA on battery cells performance and improvement for advanced air mobility
- Reported memorandum of understanding puts AA’s pre-order book at ~$6 Billion of revenue
In fact, N.v. Stellantis in July bought 17 million shares for $54 million.
The best part is there is a massive short interest % of 22.28% as last reported to Nasdaq. The companies ATL is $1.87 & $2.00 a share in 2023. Unless you are believing this company is going bankrupt I can’t imagine seeing lows to that level again but it is possible.
Current investment headwinds are also seeking to alleviate with the new FED posture towards the FFR from “restrictive” to “recalibrate”.
Lastly, I like the potential and promise of this new technology. If the price is right and they can find ways to keep the travel cost low I can see the feasibility of taking a group such as a family on a trip using this instead of purchasing an expensive flight and dealing with the airports.
The cons to all of this new Jetsons type of technology will be regulatory hurdles but proving this out with the military and NASA is surely to get them a quality working framework for more and more general use.
Even though regulatory concerns are a con they have a sort of bonus bright side that is worth considering. Air-Robotaxis. Controlling an aircraft autonomously is much much easier than trying to control a vehicle autonomously. The rules in the air are well established and there is significantly less congested by orders of magnitude. It wouldn’t surprise me if we have these vehicles autonomous before we have level 4/5 self-driving vehicles.
All in all I think now is the time to invest in the premier eVTOL startup Archer Aviation.