It’s me again, the Emergent Biosolutions guy. Here with some more information since I have bought and doubled down on my original investment. I hope some of you clowns took my advice because you’d be up over 100% if you did, but if you didn’t, don’t fret because this has legs to run yet.
Who is Emergent Biosolutions Inc? Well, they are the same company that makes NARCAN, so it’s a money pox vaccine play and more opioid overdoses which are not getting fixed.
First off, this strain of MPOX wasn’t like the 2022 strain (clade 2) which was mainly transmitted from dudes playing grab butt in the gym while they told their wife they were “working out”, but this strain (clade 1) is transmitted far easier (still less than covid) and has a far higher fatality rate than the previous strain at 10% vs 1%. I will fully admit I understand Africa’s poor infrastructure has something to do with this, but it is still definitely worse. Now that the World Health Organization has declared Mpox a public health emergency, it doesn’t matter if this amounts to anything. There will be non stop fear mongering about this leading into the elections. Emergent Biosolutions Inc has emergency vaccine authority and is wildly volatile up and down trading.
So their vaccine has emergency vaccine authority unlike the BAVA vaccine which doesn’t have the emergency tag. Why do I not care about this? Because the CDC director of Africa has said that Africa will need 10 million vaccines by the end of the year at a minimum. BAVA has said they can fulfil 2 million of those doses, so the 80% needs to come from somewhere. they are also applying to remove the emergency tag from the vaccine to the FDA. This is just Africa’s need. If it spreads more worldwide, vaccines will need to be used and the first case just hit Sweden yesterday.
On top of all of that, since my original play, which was playing the hysteria from this in an election year, I realized they are the makers of NARCAN and the opioid epidemic is not getting fixed anywhere. Their book value seems to be way down as a company.
A word of caution, this is a volatile trading stock, even as writing this it went from high of 11.61 today to 9.70, but it’s still up a dollar on the day. It might gap fill today or tomorrow, but I will just keep adding more. Buy shares or long dated calls so you can weather this volatility.