In the financial arena, the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 10 caused ripples, especially in prediction markets. Observers generally felt that Harris outperformed Trump, a perception supported by the data from Polymarket.
Previously, reports indicated that Trump had a significant lead over Harris in prediction markets. However, Polymarket’s data showed that on September 4-6, Trump had a 53% winning chance, while Harris’s chances dropped to 45%. This scenario has now shifted.
The latest figures from Polymarket on September 11 revealed that both candidates now have an equal 49% chance of winning. This change could be attributed to the recent presidential debate, where Harris, representing the Democratic Party, was seen as the dominant force.
Polymarket operates as a trading market where global traders place bets by purchasing shares. Each winning share pays out one dollar in USDC, and traders can buy these shares at a dynamic exchange rate. Currently, the “yes” bets for Trump and Harris cost around $0.49, reflecting their winning odds. If either candidate wins, those holding “yes” shares stand to gain $0.51 per share.
The vice president and former president engaged in a lively debate covering various topics, including legal matters, pandemic responses, inflation, and immigration. Contentious issues such as abortion rights, economic policies, and global conflicts were also touched upon, showcasing the candidates’ differing stands. The debate highlighted deep partisan divides, with celebrities like Taylor Swift endorsing Harris post-debate, potentially influencing her campaign.
As analysts assess the debate’s impact on the electoral race, prediction markets continue to make their mark as a reflection of shifting perceptions.