OHI is a REIT that invests in skilled nursing and assisted living facilities for the elderly. OHI buys the facilities and then rents them to a diverse group of health care companies, which operate the facilities. OHI has a current dividend yield of 7%.
2020-2023 was a challenging time for the industry. Occupancy rates dropped sharply in 2020 & 21 due to increased death rates. And labor shortages from 2021-23 caused severe wage inflation. These factors resulted in late or missed payments from a few of OHI’s tenants. FAD payout ratio briefly exceeded the dangerous 100% level for a couple of quarters, indicating that FAD might not have had sufficient funds and might have had to cut its dividend. (This ratio is now under 100% and decreasing).
Those headwinds are now fading or gone completely.
Occupancy
Nation-wide senior housing occupancy levels have now risen for 12 consecutive quarters and are now approaching pre-pandemic levels around 86%. But they won’t stop there. Construction activity on new senior living facilities has been very low for years due to pandemic induced headwinds. Investors did not want to fund new senior living projects when current facilities had low occupancy levels. Construction rates have been approximately ⅓ of pre-pandemic levels for 3 full years now. And the 80+ population will increase by 30%, or by 4 million people in the next decade.
These factors, combined, are projected to cause a serious shortage of senior housing in the near future. This organization projects a shortfall of over 500,000 (!) senior housing units by 2030. This shortage will force rental rates higher and create a future spike in revenue for OHI when tenants renew their leases. And it will also cause senior living property values to increase sharply. OHI currently owns billions of dollars of senior living facilities. Shortages in senior housing will result in significant asset appreciation leading to a higher stock price based on increased intrinsic value.
Labor
The pandemic forced the borders to remain virtually closed in 2020-21. Immigration dropped to very low levels and a severe labor shortage emerged when economic activity picked up again. The labor shortage peaked in 2022 with 12 million US job openings. This led to extreme wage inflation (relative to pre-2020 levels) peaking at over 10%. The elderly care industry and OHI was particularly hard-hit by this wage growth because they employ so many workers. The government addressed this problem by opening up the borders. Goldman Sachs estimates that net migration to the US is currently at +2 million/year. Many of these immigrants will work in entry level jobs like caregivers or cleaners. They will decrease wage inflation and increase the profit margins for the tenants of OHI.
Conclusion
I’m not a financial professional but I think OHI’s dividend of 0.67/share is safe. Incredible tailwinds in the coming quarters and years will tend to decrease the number of distressed tenants. The FAD payout ratio is likely to continue moving down and away from the dangerous 100% level. And these tailwinds will also lead to revenue growth and asset appreciation, which will push the stock price higher. I first posted about the elderly care industry in March of this year, and since then the elderly care tickers I mentioned (ADUS, ENSG, WELL, NHC) have returned over 30% in only 5 months. But, I believe there is still incredible potential in this industry and OHI looks like a fine choice because facility shortages haven’t even started yet with occupancy levels only now approaching pre-2020 levels. Â